National vacancy increased from 3.1% in Q3 2022 to 3.8% in Q4 2022, driven by a slowdown in take-up at the end of the year, reflecting the changes in the wider economy, and the completion of a few speculative schemes, especially in the Hauts-de-France region. Nevertheless, the logistics market remains tight with a supply pipeline that is limited to 9 months of take-up[8], and is unevenly distributed with more than half of speculative pipeline in the Hauts-de-France region. In the medium-to-long-term, new developments should be limited due to (i) recent policy changes limiting greenfield developments and (ii) the rapid pace of inflation, which implies higher construction costs, a higher cost of financing and potentially higher exit yields. This tightening supply is expected to result in strong rental growth, making investment in well located logistics development projects or standing assets with short lease lengths, allowing for rapid rental uplifts, a compelling proposition.

[8] Source: CBRE